石油将在替代能源问世前消耗殆尽

At the current pace of research and development, global oil will run out 90 years before replacement¹ technologies are ready, says a new University of California, Davis, study based on stock market expectations. The forecast was published online Monday (Nov. 8) in the journal Environmental Science & Technology. It is based on the theory that long-term investors² are good predictors of whether and when new energy technologies will become commonplace（平凡的） .

"Our results suggest it will take a long time before renewable replacement fuels can be self-sustaining, at least from a market perspective," said study author Debbie Niemeier, a UC Davis professor of civil and environmental engineering.

Niemeier and co-author Nataliya Malyshkina, a UC Davis postdoctoral researcher, set out to create a new tool that would help policymakers set realistic targets for environmental sustainability and evaluate the progress made toward those goals. #

Two key elements of the new theory are market capitalizations (based on stock share prices) and dividends³（股息，红利） of publicly owned oil companies and alternative-energy companies. Other analysts⁴ have previously⁵ used similar equations to predict events in finance, politics and sports. #

"Sophisticated investors tend to put considerable effort into collecting, processing and understanding information relevant to the future cash flows paid by securities," said Malyshkina. "As a result, market forecasts of future events, representing consensus⁶（一致，舆论） predictions of a large number of investors, tend to be relatively⁷ accurate."

#

Niemeier said the new study's findings are a warning that current renewable-fuel targets are not ambitious（有雄心的） enough to prevent harm to society, economic development and natural ecosystems⁸.

#

"We need stronger policy impetus⁹（动力，促进） to push the development of these alternative replacement technologies along," she said. #