精确找到火山喷发的位置可能将成为现实

A better way to pinpoint¹ where volcanic² eruptions⁴（火山喷发） are likely to occur has been produced by an international team of geophysicists（地球物理学者） . Scientists from the universities of Leeds, Purdue, Indiana and Addis Ababa, investigated volcanic activity occurring in the remote Afar desert of Northern Ethiopia between 2005 and 2009. #

By studying a rare sequence of 13 magmatic events – where hot molten rock was intruded⁵ into（侵入，闯入） a crack between the African and Arabian plates – they found that the location of each intrusion was not random⁶. They showed that they were linked because each event changed the amount of tension in the earth's crust（地壳，外壳） .

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The findings, published in Nature Geoscience, will help scientists to more accurately⁷ predict where volcanic eruptions could strike and contribute to efforts to limit the damage they can cause. #

Lead author Dr Ian Hamling, who completed the analysis as part of his PhD in the School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds said: "It's been known for some time that a large earthquake has a role to play in triggering subsequent（后来的，随后的） earthquakes, but until now, our knowledge of volcanic events has been based on isolated⁸ cases. We have demonstrated that volcanic eruptions can influence each other. This will help us predict where future volcanic eruptions are likely to happen."

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The team studied the region around a large volcanic dyke⁹（堤） – a vertical¹⁰ crack which is created when Magma seeps¹¹（漏，渗出） from underground through rifts¹² in the surface of the earth – which erupted in the Afar desert in September 2005. #

he Magma - hot molten rock - was injected along the dyke between depths of 2 and 9 km, and altered the tension of the earth. The team was able to watch the 12 smaller dykes¹³ that subsequently took place in the same region over a four year period. #

By monitoring levels of tension in the ground near where each dyke was intruded they found that subsequent eruptions were more likely in places where the tension increases.

Dr Hamling said: "If you look at this year's eruptions at Ejafjallajokull in Iceland, by estimating the tension in the crust at other volcanoes nearby, you could estimate whether the likelihood（可能性） of them eruption³ has increased or decreased. Knowing the state of stress in this way won't tell you when an eruption will happen, but it will give a better idea of where it is most likely to occur."#p#分页标题#e# #